Linda & John Seebeth

The following presentation was given at the Veterans for Peace National Convention in Seattle, Washington, August 2006.




Good afternoon.  My name is John Seebeth and I’m the presenter of this workshop.
    For the next hour I’ll be talking about how global warming and extreme weather events are already impacting us.  We’ll look at climate changes and how they threaten our society and our national security.
    As individuals and as a nation, are we prepared for the consequences of global warming?
   
    Above is a picture of New Orleans and a Blackhawk medevac helicopter rescuing a storm survivor after Katrina.  The person is being lifted up to the chopper by a mechanical hoist.

    I’d like to introduce myself, and explain my background and why I’m presenting this workshop.

After a dozen surgeries, and a couple of years of healing, I went to college.

    I was a Forensics major, originally interested in joining law enforcement.  As it became clear that the doctors would not be able to close the hole in my neck, my career goals were forced to shift.  My studies and interests also shifted.  Instead of locking up criminals, I became interested in the underlying causes of criminal behavior.  I became interested in the social problems that create deviant behavior.  How do we deal with those problems--such as poverty, the lack of education opportunities and health care--how can we deal with such problems and keep young people out of the criminal justice system before they ever get into it? 

    I left University during my second year of graduate school.  I was pretty naïve when I entered college, so I had a lot of ideas to process.

What better way to process than all by myself on long bicycle trips?

I bicycled across the Yukon to the Arctic Circle and the vast, treeless plains of the tundra.

 I bicycled the eleven hundred miles of the Baja across desert and cacti forests.

My emotional and physical wounds began to heal as I pushed my level of endurance to the max.  I bicycled up steep mountain passes that seemed endless.  I bicycled through wind, rain and scorching sun.

 The forces of nature humbled me. 


    I kayaked 300 miles along the Inside Passage of the Alaskan coast surrounded by majestic white-capped mountains.  I got to know and experience the wonder and beauty of the land firsthand.  The upper picture shows the breathing apparatus that was designed for me to keep water out of the hole in my neck.  For a city boy, I developed a deep awe and respect for the natural environment.


    In between my bicycle trips, I became an activist.  As a medic who had seen the devastation of war, I asked myself--how can I contribute to the well being of humanity?  The most obvious thing that threatened humanity at that time seemed to be the proliferation of nuclear weaponry.   I joined Target Seattle in support of a nuclear freeze.  From my experience in Vietnam, I was pushed by a moral imperative to stop the destructive madness.

By the 1980s,  headline attention was being given to a problem I had been following since I was in college:  a hole was growing in the ozone layer.  This was alarming news because without a protective layer of ozone, life could not survive on the planet.  What was causing the hole in the ozone layer? 
    The hole was being caused by human activity, namely the release of CFCs  or chloro-fluoro-carbons into the atmosphere.  CFCs were used in air-conditioning and refrigeration.
    In 1987, urgent worldwide response to the hole in the ozone layer, resulted in the signing of the Montreal Protocol which called for an eventual 50% reduction of CFCs. 

  


I read the writings of all these men and they greatly influenced my understanding of the natural systems, and how human activity is having an effect on them.  I refer to these men as climate heroes because they all share a long term commitment to the environment.

That’s Carl Sagan on the upper left.  I read the renowned astrophysicist’s work about the ozone layer and his theory of a Nuclear Winter.  Nuclear Winter proposed that the detonation of an atomic bomb would have more far-reaching consequences than the destruction of the initial blast.  In the aftermath of a nuclear war, light from the sun would be blocked by clouds of smoke and dust, causing temperatures to drop, and threatening photosynthesis.  Hopefully, we’ll never have a nuclear war to find out whether the theory of Nuclear Winter is true, but the theory connected human activity with climate changes.   Carl Sagan was one of the leading scientists to address global warming.

The man below Carl Sagan is Dr. Charles Keeling-- professor of oceanography at Scripps Institution of Oceanography.  He was the first scientist to accurately measure the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The machine he set up in 1958 at the Mauna Loa Observatory, on top of a Hawaiian volcano, has given climate scientists a continuous record of rising carbon dioxide levels and confirmed that human activities are rapidly changing the atmosphere.

On the top right is Dr. James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies.  The picture shows Dr. Hanson testifying before the Senate Energy Committee on June 23, 1988.  The global warming predictions that he made 25 years ago--such as summer heat waves and droughts--are occurring with regularity today. Recently, Dr. Hansen has been in the news because his call for prompt reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases linked to global warming resulted in the Bush administration trying to censure him. 
Dr. Hansen is a climate hero because he refuses to be silenced.

And below Dr. Hansen is Al Gore.  He was the first politician to take global warming seriously and try to do something meaningful about it.  His book, Earth In the Balance, was a significant milestone when it came out in 1992.  And Mr. Gore is still trumpeting the message that we need to take global warming seriously with his current movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

I took the idea of the “power of one” to heart.  I devoted much time and effort to try to alert society to the dangers posed by global warming and how we could avoid disasters by making individual and societal changes ahead of time.
     I wrote letters and guest editorials, served on land use and transportation committees and organized an Air Quality task force for the City of Issaquah--which is why I was awarded the Kiwanis Environmental Award in 1992 for my work regarding local air quality and global climate change.


This book--The Heat is On-- was a strong influence for me in 1997.  The author, Ross Gelbspan outlines the science of global warming and what we should be doing to avoid disastrous consequences.  It also exposes the misinformation campaign conducted by oil and coal interests to deliberately confuse the public about global warming.  I sponsored a forum at the University of Washington featuring Ross Gelbspan.

To quote Gelbspan:
    "Throughout history, it has been philosophers, religious leaders, and revolutionaries who have asked us to examine our values, our relationships, our purposes, and the way we live.  Now we are being asked by the oceans."


As a medic in Vietnam, I saw a lot of suffering.  It’s hard to witness the civilian casualties of war, especially the innocent children.  All of my reading about global warming pointed to the fact that many innocent civilians would suffer if people in positions of power did not take immediate action against the causes of global warming.  With the goal of informing government and community leaders, I bought and mailed 1,000 copies of The Heat Is On and sent it to every member of Congress as well as local policy makers and anyone I could think of who was in a position of authority and could help influence change.

This is a response I received from General Henry Shelton who was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1999.  He wrote:  Thank you for the information on global warming and copy of The Heat Is On. It certainly makes thought-provoking reading about a topic of importance to our nation.
Your service to the Nation in Vietnam and concern for the planet are greatly appreciated.
    The military can’t say they weren’t warned!


   When most people think about global warming, they imagine a gradual increase in temperature that will not be severe enough to create security threats.  Some people even have the perception that global warming could be a good thing--more days at the beach and banana trees growing above the Arctic Circle.  Recent evidence suggests that a more dire climate scenario may actually be unfolding.  It’s referred to as abrupt climate change.
   Today. advances in science allow us to study the actual history of climate change which provides some useful guidelines and a clearer picture of what’s happening in our environment.  Much more information is available today than just ten years ago.  Today scientists can study the natural cycles of global temperature and atmospheric gas concentrations through Tree Rings, Ocean floor sediment and Ice Cores.  Air bubbles in ice cores provide a wealth of information.  Gases and ancient pollen trapped in the ice bubbles tell us about the vegetation at the time and what the gas concentrations of the atmosphere were. 


The science of the greenhouse effect is well understood. 

When you burn carbon--such as coal or oil--it releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  The atmosphere is limited, only surrounding the planet for about 10 miles up before it thins out into space.

CO2, a trace gas, is a byproduct of the industrial age and is contributing to global warming.



The timeline of this slide is from 1870 to the present.   It illustrates a steady increase in concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.

For thousands of years, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been fairly constant at about 280 ppm.  In the last 400 years or so, corresponding to the start of the Industrial Age, CO2 has increased to about 380 ppm. 




The information presented on this graph indicates a strong correlation between the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere and temperature.

This graph shows the atmospheric concentration of CO2 over the past 400 thousand years.  During that time CO2 never exceeded 300 ppm--and as I just mentioned, today it is at 380 ppm.  Not only is CO2 rising in mass, the rate of increase is speeding up. 

My forensics training tells me that our industrial age has something to do with the unprecedented rise.  The problem with a growing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere--is that CO2 is very effective at trapping the sun’s energy close to the earth’s surface which then results in more heat.




In the past, conventional science told us that changes in the climate, such as the coming and going of Ice Ages took thousands of years.  So global warming was seen as a gradual process that would not pose immediate threats to society. 

If it’s been difficult for scientists to understand how the climate system works, it’s been even more difficult for the public to wrap their minds around it.  We were educated to believe that glaciers inch along at a slow rate.

In the 1950’s scientists believed it would take tens of thousands of years for the climate shift.  Today, after the analysis of Greenland ice cores in 1993, most experts accept that rapid climate change--huge and global change--could come suddenly at any time.

Since we’ve never known anything other than the mostly friendly climate we’ve been living in for the past several thousand years, abrupt climate change is a hard concept to accept. It requires a paradigm shift--much like first accepting the fact that the earth is round.

Scientists searched for the trigger that could flip a sudden climate shift.   One thing that had not been previously understood was how a warming atmosphere causes potent "feedback loops" to kick-in.  And then the feedback loops cause temperatures to rise all the faster.


We see the result of a warming atmosphere and also the creation of a feedback loop in the Arctic.  Sea ice in the Arctic has failed to re-form for the second consecutive winter. Scientists are forecasting the sea ice will be completely gone by 2050. 

While the melting ice is causing problems for the indigenous cultures and wildlife, it also contributes to an acceleration of global warming by creating a feedback loop. 

Because ice and snow both strongly reflect the sun’s rays, they help to keep the earth cool by reflecting that heat back into space.  But as ice and glaciers melt, more land and water are exposed.  Land and water, being darker surfaces, reflect less solar heat back out into space which makes temperatures grow hotter.  As temperatures grow hotter, more ice melts--and a vicious feedback loop is created--making global warming happen all the faster.  This, by the way, is known as the Albedo effect.

 The ice cap is critical because it helps regulate the planet's temperature. Its bright surface reflects 80 percent of the solar energy that strikes it, sending it back into space. Climatologists say a smaller ice cap will reflect less solar energy and expose more open water, which is darker and absorbs 90 percent of the solar energy that falls on it. It heats up, holds more of that heat from year to year, and makes it harder for ice to form again in the fall and winter.

Left:   Sea ice concentration, three-year average from 1979-1981. Image courtesy NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Right:  Sea ice concentration, three-year average from 2003-2005. Image courtesy NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio


In the Southern hemisphere, Antarctica is melting.   Winter air temperatures over Antarctica have risen by more than 2 degrees C in the last 30 years.  If melting continues, and the West Antarctic ice sheet melts, sea levels are predicted to rise 20 feet.  This loss of sun-reflecting ice in Antarctica also contributes to the feedback loop (Albedo effect).



A view of the breakup of the northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf is seen in an image taken from NASA's Moderate-resolution Imaging SpectroRadiometer satellite.


In addition to the Arctic Sea melt and the melting of the Antarctic, we are witnessing land glaciers melting. 
Also, the frozen Alaskan tundra is thawing.  And on the other side of the world, vast expanses of western Siberia are undergoing an unprecedented thaw.  As the tundra warms, it leaks CO2 and methane.  The release of huge amounts of those greenhouse gases into the atmosphere creates even higher temperatures, causing another feedback loop which increases the speed and intensity of global warming.


These buildings were constructed upon Alaskan permafrost.  The melting permafrost is impacting the structures built on top of it-- such as, buildings, roads, power poles, and oil pipelines.  


Here, we see the Greenland Ice Sheet which is breaking apart and melting.  Since 1996, there has been an acceleration of ice sheet--or glacier--fracturing during the summer melt season, indicating the ice sheet may be responding more quickly to the warming climate than previously anticipated.

Sea levels are predicted to rise 20 feet if the Greenland ice sheet melts.  That’s in addition to the 20 foot rise predicted with a West Antarctic ice sheet meltdown.


Although melt lakes have long been common on Greenland’s ice cap, their size and frequency show signs of increasing. Only now are scientists closely monitoring this development.



This is a satellite image showing ice loss in a span of ten years from 1992 to 2002.  The red was added to indicate the ice that is now gone.  We can see how much ice has melted and broken apart in only a decade.

We can understand how the loss of snow and ice accelerates even more warming, but what is the hair trigger that would cause abrupt climate change?



The most influential idea for what might bring rapid change was presented by this man, Wallace Broecker.  He saw signs of rapid shifts between two alternate climate states as he researched his doctoral thesis in the 1950s.  From the 1960s through the 1980s, Broecker’s research described one mechanism that would cause an abrupt shift in climate--a shut down of the entire circulation of the world's oceans.



Prior to the 1990s, global warming was considered to mainly be an atmospheric problem, but as the interrelationship between oceans and atmosphere are better understood, new evidence supports Broecker’s theories.  Scientists now have a better understanding about the relationship between the melting Greenland ice sheet, the reduced salinity of the North Atlantic sea water and the ocean’s currents.

This is a representation of the great ocean conveyor belt system, known as the thermohaline circulation.

Nowadays, warm tropical water as shown by the orange line, flows northward near the surface of the Atlantic.  A large quantity of colder water, heavy with salt, sinks near Iceland and returns southward in deeper currents as shown by the blue lines.  These ocean currents--and we are most familiar with the one called the Gulf Stream--help to moderate air temperatures around the globe. 



The north Atlantic conveyor carries warm water to northern latitudes where it sinks, returning at depth in the ocean.

Dr. Broecker suggested that a change in temperature or salinity might shut down the circulation and bring severe climate change..  





Abrupt climate change has not totally been ignored by the US government.  In 2003, the Pentagon released an abrupt climate change scenario which summarized that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century and it will have a profound impact upon human life.



The report recognizes the interrelationship between ocean currents and the atmosphere.  Changes in ocean currents influence changes in the atmospheric jet stream which separates cold, polar air from hot tropical air.

Lately, the jet stream has been creeping toward the poles, making deserts expand further north and south.


The Pentagon report addresses the following consequences:


As the report states:  “Regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production could be severely altered, resulting in a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.”

Interruption to the food supply, shortages of clean water, as well as outbreaks of contagious disease are potential national security risks.  These are not risks today, but if the trends continue, and without adequate preparation, the scope and intensity will increase with a warmer environment.





Insect pests that were once kept in check by winter cold, are flourishing and damaging our forests.

As summers get longer and hotter, more of our forests are fiercely burning. 

Burning and dying forests contribute to another feedback loop because as trees die, forests absorb less carbon dioxide, and as trees burn, they release CO2 back into the atmosphere--resulting in higher atmospheric temperatures which again, leads to further warming.


   
    It’s beyond the scope of this workshop to discuss ocean methane and how it contributes to another feedback loop of global warming, but we’ve had a broad look at the complicated science of global warming.  As we have seen, it will not be a gradual and linear warming.  The weather events will be extreme, chaotic, and unpredictable with far-reaching consequences that threaten our national security.





You can’t be on the planet today without noticing the extreme weather patterns.  From increased storms and flash floods to more forest fires and golfball sized hail, extreme appears to have become the norm.

Extreme weather events are making many people believe that something ain’t right.  The Pentagon report addressed the increased intensity and occurrences of storms--especially in certain regions around the world.  Recovery and clean-up efforts following such storms would be a great drain on a nation’s resources.




    Because, as we’ve seen, extreme weather events are very costly. 



According to the Pentagon report, a shortage of food, water, and habitable land, will cause a tremendous surge of environmental refugees.  Global warming - more than war or political upheaval - will displace millions of people. 

How will nations secure their borders and control local struggles for resources?


This man, John Reid, was recently in the news.  As the British Defense Secretary--a position similar to the one Donald Rumsfeld now holds, Mr. Reid made the news because of a speech he made in February 2006.  In that speech he listed climate change as one of the major threats facing the world in future decades.   
To quote Mr. Reid:
    “Impacts such as flooding, melting permafrost and desertification could lead to loss of agricultural land, poisoning of water supplies and destruction of economic infrastructure.  Such changes make the emergence of violent conflict more rather than less likely.” 
    The British military is being put on standby to tackle threat of wars over water.
    Policy makers in other countries are not burying their head in the sand about global warming and abrupt climate change. 
    When will the U.S. take a stand and what have we learned so far?


Looking at the effects of one storm--Katrina-- let’s examine national security risks.

And what will be the impacts of more Katrinas, as we are predicted to experience. 

Are we ready for more extreme weather events?


Remember when I mentioned that more than war or political upheaval, global warming will create environmental refugees?

During Hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year, 2 million people were displaced from the Gulf Coast. 


We can imagine the time and money it will take to rebuild all of this.  All of this damage was caused by Katrina.

One immediate consequence of a severely damaged infrastructure is that rescue efforts get bogged down.



On the left is an oil derrick upside down on the beach.  Katrina interrupted the country's fuel supplies, spurring a frenzied spike in gasoline, natural gas and heating oil prices.

The resulting higher costs of fuel puts an additional strain on the national economy. 



Hurricane Katrina triggered 575 petroleum and hazardous chemical spills.
Today, we still have no idea about the extent of damage--short term or long term.  We don’t know how much money it will cost to clean it up and we don’t know how long it will take--or even if it can be cleaned up at all.


As waters rose, the petroleum and hazardous chemical spills spread further inland.
When will displaced residents be able to return to this neighborhood--and others like it?


Many Katrina survivors were exposed to prolonged exposure to the petrochemical tainted flood waters.  What will be the long term health effects?  And as British Secretary of Defense brought out, has the water supply been poisoned?
 

    If water becomes contaminated with toxic chemicals or damaged sewage systems, we have a population in urgent crisis. 


How do you communicate that you’re in crisis if the communication systems aren’t working?  Many telephones, including most cell phones, were out of service due to line breaks or power failures.   No internet, no newspapers, no way to know what’s happening. 

A bright spot in Katrina’s aftermath is that amateur radio operators were heroes in helping to provide tactical and emergency communications.
 



Poor planning and confusion about the military's role in a disaster contributed to problems.  While the British Defense Secretary has put their armed forces on standby for the effects of global warming, what is our military doing?



And as a reminder, the powerful winds and storm surge of Katrina was not the only weather related event we have recently seen.   The floods of the Northeast made one witness say-- “The rains came with intensity and without letup.  Then came the floods - quickly and without mercy.”



I hope you leave this workshop with an understanding that:
• global warming is here
and it causes feedback loops which speed up and amplify the effects of climate change
Abrupt climate change can cause cataclysmic events that could devastate water, food and energy supplies
 which could disrupt society as we know it

I hope I haven’t filled you with fear because there’s already too much fear around the planet today.  Rather than despair, we need to take action. 

One way to start making changes is to understand the truth of what is happening.  We’ve been shielded from the truth--just as the theories of Copernicus were labeled as heresy when he announced that the earth revolved around the sun.  Eventually, the truth of his theory could not be denied.

Today, requires prompt action so human creativity and ingenuity can get at it.  We can’t find solutions if we don’t understand the problem, so to further your understanding, I recommend the following books.


To understand how global warming and dwindling natural resources  will increase the likelihood of violent conflict over land, water and energy, I highly recommend Michael Klare’s book, Resource Wars.

The book below Klare’s book is entitled, Floods, Famines and Emperors by Brian Fagan.  It gives plenty of examples of how cultures have adapted to stressful weather and the ways in which climatic alterations have changed the course of history.

On the upper right is Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse.  Contrary to common beliefs, societal collapses of the past have been caused by sudden climate change, not only by social, political and economic factors.

And finally, the world of hope.  David Korten writes about The Great Turning and the shift of paradigms we are now experiencing.  How can we assist in making the transition from a world of empire to a world of earth community? I know that I’m going to attend his workshop at 5:30 today because first and foremost, I believe we need a change in consciousness.



Back in Vietnam, sometimes it seemed overwhelming to climb back into the helicopter knowing we were headed for a violent firefight.  The odds were high that we would take some hits-- and possibly turn into a catastrophic fireball.  Dustoff missions were dangerous--we ended up losing a third of our crew members during the Vietnam War.  Yet, we flew into those hot firefights, fate unknown, because lives were at stake.  There is no greater calling than contributing to the well-being of others and supporting and sustaining life.
 
Today, we embark on a similar cause.  We all have to make an effort to turn things around.  Even small efforts in our daily lives, add up.

I encourage you to try and understand the issue and educate yourself.  The internet provides a wealth of information.  When you know the truth of what is going on, your heart and mind will tell you what to do.  Share your knowledge with friends and family.   Together, we will make steps toward a world of hope.  We the people must insist that our government--starting at the local level--addresses the issue of global warming.

In talking about global warming, Carl Sagan said:  "I am moderately hopeful that we can get out of this mess -- but only by changes in behavior. We have been irresponsible in technology. We've been greedy for short term goals and profits.  Now, we must change." - Quoted in the Phoenix Gazette, September 26, 1989

I was only given a 1 in 3 chance of survival, yet here I am.  There is no telling what we can do if we put our minds and hearts to it.