A World of Hurt or Hope
The National Security Implications of
Global Warming/ Abrupt Climate Change
John gave the following presentation in 2006 at the Veteran's for Peace National Convention in Seattle, Washington.
Good afternoon. My name is John Seebeth and I’m the presenter of this workshop.
For the next hour I’ll be talking about how global warming and extreme weather events are already impacting us. We’ll look at climate changes and how they threaten our society and our national security.
As individuals and as a nation, are we prepared for the consequences of global warming?
At the end of my presentation, there will be time for questions and discussion, so please hold your questions until the end.
This is a picture of New Orleans and a Blackhawk medevac helicopter rescuing a storm survivor after Katrina. The person is being lifted up to the chopper by a mechanical hoist.
I’d like to introduce myself, and explain my background and why I’m presenting this workshop.
For the next hour I’ll be talking about how global warming and extreme weather events are already impacting us. We’ll look at climate changes and how they threaten our society and our national security.
As individuals and as a nation, are we prepared for the consequences of global warming?
At the end of my presentation, there will be time for questions and discussion, so please hold your questions until the end.
This is a picture of New Orleans and a Blackhawk medevac helicopter rescuing a storm survivor after Katrina. The person is being lifted up to the chopper by a mechanical hoist.
I’d like to introduce myself, and explain my background and why I’m presenting this workshop.
That’s me in the picture on the upper left, standing in front of a helicopter at Red Beach, Da Nang in 1968. I was 20 years-old. I was a medic in Vietnam and a member of a 4 man flight crew who rescued soldiers in helicopter ambulances. We were known as Dustoff. We performed hoist missions, similar to the previous slide, but during our rescue missions, we were often under enemy fire. I’m in the forefront of the picture on the upper right. That picture was taken at LZ Baldy in July of 1969. By that time, I was 21 years-old and the atrocities of war had been etched upon my face.
The following month during a major battle in the Hiep Duc Valley during a rescue mission to pick up a severely wounded US soldier, I was critically injured with a gunshot wound to the neck. I found out last month that the doctors had given me a 1 in 3 chance of survival.
Those of you in the audience hear me breathe and speak through my wound today.
The lower pictures are of me a couple of years ago at Fort Lewis. I’m standing beside a UH-1 Bell Huey similar to the Dustoff choppers I flew upon nearly 40 years ago.
The following month during a major battle in the Hiep Duc Valley during a rescue mission to pick up a severely wounded US soldier, I was critically injured with a gunshot wound to the neck. I found out last month that the doctors had given me a 1 in 3 chance of survival.
Those of you in the audience hear me breathe and speak through my wound today.
The lower pictures are of me a couple of years ago at Fort Lewis. I’m standing beside a UH-1 Bell Huey similar to the Dustoff choppers I flew upon nearly 40 years ago.
After a dozen surgeries, and a couple of years of healing, I went to college.
I was a Forensics major, originally interested in joining law enforcement. As it became clear that the doctors would not be able to close the hole in my neck, my career goals were forced to shift. My studies and interests also shifted. Instead of locking up criminals, I became interested in the underlying causes of criminal behavior. I became interested in the social problems that create deviant behavior. How do we deal with those problems--such as poverty, the lack of education opportunities and health care--how can we deal with such problems and keep young people out of the criminal justice system before they ever get into it?
I left University during my second year of graduate school. I was pretty naïve when I entered college, so I had a lot of ideas to process.
I was a Forensics major, originally interested in joining law enforcement. As it became clear that the doctors would not be able to close the hole in my neck, my career goals were forced to shift. My studies and interests also shifted. Instead of locking up criminals, I became interested in the underlying causes of criminal behavior. I became interested in the social problems that create deviant behavior. How do we deal with those problems--such as poverty, the lack of education opportunities and health care--how can we deal with such problems and keep young people out of the criminal justice system before they ever get into it?
I left University during my second year of graduate school. I was pretty naïve when I entered college, so I had a lot of ideas to process.
What better way to process than all by myself on long bicycle trips? I bicycled across the Yukon to the Arctic Circle and the vast, treeless plains of the tundra.
I bicycled the eleven hundred miles of the Baja across desert and cacti forests. My emotional and physical wounds began to heal as I pushed my level of endurance to the max. I bicycled up steep mountain passes that seemed endless. I bicycled through wind, rain and scorching sun.
The forces of nature humbled me.
I bicycled the eleven hundred miles of the Baja across desert and cacti forests. My emotional and physical wounds began to heal as I pushed my level of endurance to the max. I bicycled up steep mountain passes that seemed endless. I bicycled through wind, rain and scorching sun.
The forces of nature humbled me.
I kayaked 300 miles along the Inside Passage of the Alaskan coast surrounded by majestic white-capped mountains. I got to know and experience the wonder and beauty of the land firsthand. The upper picture shows the breathing apparatus that was designed for me to keep water out of the hole in my neck. For a city boy, I developed a deep awe and respect for the natural environment.
In between my bicycle trips, I became an activist. As a medic who had seen the devastation of war, I asked myself--how can I contribute to the well being of humanity? The most obvious thing that threatened humanity at that time seemed to be the proliferation of nuclear weaponry. I joined Target Seattle in support of a nuclear freeze. From my experience in Vietnam, I was pushed by a moral imperative to stop the destructive madness.
By the 1980s, headline attention was being given to a problem I had been following since I was in college: a hole was growing in the ozone layer. This was alarming news because without a protective layer of ozone, life could not survive on the planet. What was causing the hole in the ozone layer?
The hole was being caused by human activity, namely the release of CFCs or chloro-fluoro-carbons into the atmosphere. CFCs were used in air-conditioning and refrigeration. Later, it was discovered that CFC is a potent greenhouse gas that not only damages the ozone, but--like CO2 and methane--warms the earth’s atmosphere.
In 1987, urgent worldwide response to the hole in the ozone layer, resulted in the signing of the Montreal Protocol which called for an eventual 50% reduction of CFCs.
My forensics background sparked my curiosity and prompted me to take a deeper look into the effects of our human activities. Just as I wanted to find ways to keep people out of the criminal justice system before they got into it, I wanted to prevent environmental problems from reaching crisis levels.
The above image was compiled by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA's Aura satellite from Sept. 21-30, 2006 the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed, at 10.6 million square miles government scientists said Thursday Oct. 19, 2006. This image, from Sept. 24, the Antarctic ozone hole was equal to the record single-day largest area of 11.4 million square miles, reached on Sept. 9, 2000. The so-called hole is a region where there is severe depletion of the layer of ozone _ a form of oxygen _ in the upper atmosphere that protects life on Earth by blocking the sun's ultraviolet rays. The blue and purple colors are where there is the least ozone, and the greens, yellows, and reds are where there is more ozone.
The hole was being caused by human activity, namely the release of CFCs or chloro-fluoro-carbons into the atmosphere. CFCs were used in air-conditioning and refrigeration. Later, it was discovered that CFC is a potent greenhouse gas that not only damages the ozone, but--like CO2 and methane--warms the earth’s atmosphere.
In 1987, urgent worldwide response to the hole in the ozone layer, resulted in the signing of the Montreal Protocol which called for an eventual 50% reduction of CFCs.
My forensics background sparked my curiosity and prompted me to take a deeper look into the effects of our human activities. Just as I wanted to find ways to keep people out of the criminal justice system before they got into it, I wanted to prevent environmental problems from reaching crisis levels.
The above image was compiled by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA's Aura satellite from Sept. 21-30, 2006 the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed, at 10.6 million square miles government scientists said Thursday Oct. 19, 2006. This image, from Sept. 24, the Antarctic ozone hole was equal to the record single-day largest area of 11.4 million square miles, reached on Sept. 9, 2000. The so-called hole is a region where there is severe depletion of the layer of ozone _ a form of oxygen _ in the upper atmosphere that protects life on Earth by blocking the sun's ultraviolet rays. The blue and purple colors are where there is the least ozone, and the greens, yellows, and reds are where there is more ozone.
I read the writings of all these men and they greatly influenced my understanding of the natural systems, and how human activity is having an effect on them. I refer to these men as climate heroes because they all share a long term commitment to the environment.
That’s Carl Sagan on the upper left. I read the renowned astrophysicist’s work about the ozone layer and his theory of a Nuclear Winter. Nuclear Winter proposed that the detonation of an atomic bomb would have more far-reaching consequences than the destruction of the initial blast. In the aftermath of a nuclear war, light from the sun would be blocked by clouds of smoke and dust, causing temperatures to drop, and threatening photosynthesis. Hopefully, we’ll never have a nuclear war to find out whether the theory of Nuclear Winter is true, but the theory connected human activity with climate changes. Carl Sagan was one of the leading scientists to address global warming.
The man below Carl Sagan is Dr. Charles Keeling-- professor of oceanography at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. He was the first scientist to accurately measure the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The machine he set up in 1958 at the Mauna Loa Observatory, on top of a Hawaiian volcano, has given climate scientists a continuous record of rising carbon dioxide levels and confirmed that human activities are rapidly changing the atmosphere.
On the top right is Dr. James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies. The picture shows Dr. Hanson testifying before the Senate Energy Committee on June 23, 1988. The global warming predictions that he made 25 years ago--such as summer heat waves and droughts--are occurring with regularity today. Recently, Dr. Hansen has been in the news because his call for prompt reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases linked to global warming resulted in the Bush administration trying to censure him. Dr. Hansen is a climate hero because he refuses to be silenced.
And below Dr. Hansen is Al Gore. He was the first politician to take global warming seriously and try to do something meaningful about it. His book, Earth In the Balance, was a significant milestone when it came out in 1992. And Mr. Gore is still trumpeting the message that we need to take global warming seriously with his current movie, An Inconvenient Truth.
That’s Carl Sagan on the upper left. I read the renowned astrophysicist’s work about the ozone layer and his theory of a Nuclear Winter. Nuclear Winter proposed that the detonation of an atomic bomb would have more far-reaching consequences than the destruction of the initial blast. In the aftermath of a nuclear war, light from the sun would be blocked by clouds of smoke and dust, causing temperatures to drop, and threatening photosynthesis. Hopefully, we’ll never have a nuclear war to find out whether the theory of Nuclear Winter is true, but the theory connected human activity with climate changes. Carl Sagan was one of the leading scientists to address global warming.
The man below Carl Sagan is Dr. Charles Keeling-- professor of oceanography at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. He was the first scientist to accurately measure the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The machine he set up in 1958 at the Mauna Loa Observatory, on top of a Hawaiian volcano, has given climate scientists a continuous record of rising carbon dioxide levels and confirmed that human activities are rapidly changing the atmosphere.
On the top right is Dr. James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies. The picture shows Dr. Hanson testifying before the Senate Energy Committee on June 23, 1988. The global warming predictions that he made 25 years ago--such as summer heat waves and droughts--are occurring with regularity today. Recently, Dr. Hansen has been in the news because his call for prompt reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases linked to global warming resulted in the Bush administration trying to censure him. Dr. Hansen is a climate hero because he refuses to be silenced.
And below Dr. Hansen is Al Gore. He was the first politician to take global warming seriously and try to do something meaningful about it. His book, Earth In the Balance, was a significant milestone when it came out in 1992. And Mr. Gore is still trumpeting the message that we need to take global warming seriously with his current movie, An Inconvenient Truth.
I took the idea of the “power of one” to heart. I devoted much time and effort to try to alert society to the dangers posed by global warming and how we could avoid disasters by making individual and societal changes ahead of time.
I wrote letters and guest editorials, served on land use and transportation committees and organized an Air Quality task force for the City of Issaquah--which is why I was awarded the Kiwanis Environmental Award in 1992 for my work regarding local air quality and global climate change.
I wrote letters and guest editorials, served on land use and transportation committees and organized an Air Quality task force for the City of Issaquah--which is why I was awarded the Kiwanis Environmental Award in 1992 for my work regarding local air quality and global climate change.
This book--The Heat is On-- was a strong influence for me in 1997. The author, Ross Gelbspan outlines the science of global warming and what we should be doing to avoid disastrous consequences. It also exposes the misinformation campaign conducted by oil and coal interests to deliberately confuse the public about global warming. I sponsored a forum at the University of Washington featuring Ross Gelbspan.
To quote Gelbspan:
"Throughout history, it has been philosophers, religious leaders, and revolutionaries who have asked us to examine our values, our relationships, our purposes, and the way we live. Now we are being asked by the oceans."
To quote Gelbspan:
"Throughout history, it has been philosophers, religious leaders, and revolutionaries who have asked us to examine our values, our relationships, our purposes, and the way we live. Now we are being asked by the oceans."
As a medic in Vietnam, I saw a lot of suffering. It’s hard to witness the civilian casualties of war, especially the innocent children. All of my reading about global warming pointed to the fact that many innocent civilians would suffer if people in positions of power did not take immediate action against the causes of global warming. With the goal of informing government and community leaders, I bought and mailed 1,000 copies of The Heat Is On and sent it to every member of Congress as well as local policy makers and anyone I could think of who was in a position of authority and could help influence change.
This is a response I received from General Henry Shelton who was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1999. He wrote: "Thank you for the information on global warming and copy of The Heat Is On. It certainly makes thought-provoking reading about a topic of importance to our nation. Your service to the Nation in Vietnam and concern for the planet are greatly appreciated."
The military can’t say they weren’t warned!
This is a response I received from General Henry Shelton who was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1999. He wrote: "Thank you for the information on global warming and copy of The Heat Is On. It certainly makes thought-provoking reading about a topic of importance to our nation. Your service to the Nation in Vietnam and concern for the planet are greatly appreciated."
The military can’t say they weren’t warned!
When most people think about global warming, they imagine a gradual increase in temperature that will not be severe enough to create security threats. Some people even have the perception that global warming could be a good thing--more days at the beach and banana trees growing above the Arctic Circle. Recent evidence suggests that a more dire climate scenario may actually be unfolding. It’s referred to as abrupt climate change.
Today. advances in science allow us to study the actual history of climate change which provides some useful guidelines and a clearer picture of what’s happening in our environment. Much more information is available today than just ten years ago. Today scientists can study the natural cycles of global temperature and atmospheric gas concentrations through Tree Rings, Ocean floor sediment and Ice Cores. Air bubbles in ice cores provide a wealth of information. Gases and ancient pollen trapped in the ice bubbles tell us about the vegetation at the time and what the gas concentrations of the atmosphere were.
Today. advances in science allow us to study the actual history of climate change which provides some useful guidelines and a clearer picture of what’s happening in our environment. Much more information is available today than just ten years ago. Today scientists can study the natural cycles of global temperature and atmospheric gas concentrations through Tree Rings, Ocean floor sediment and Ice Cores. Air bubbles in ice cores provide a wealth of information. Gases and ancient pollen trapped in the ice bubbles tell us about the vegetation at the time and what the gas concentrations of the atmosphere were.
The science of the greenhouse effect is well understood. When you burn carbon--such as coal or oil--it releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The atmosphere is limited, only surrounding the planet for about 10 miles up before it thins out into space. CO2, a trace gas, is a byproduct of the industrial age and is contributing to global warming.
The timeline of this slide is from 1870 to the present. It illustrates a steady increase in concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.
For thousands of years, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been fairly constant at about 280 ppm. In the last 400 years or so, corresponding to the start of the Industrial Age, CO2 has increased to about 380 ppm.
For thousands of years, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been fairly constant at about 280 ppm. In the last 400 years or so, corresponding to the start of the Industrial Age, CO2 has increased to about 380 ppm.
The information presented on this graph indicates a strong correlation between the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere and temperature.
This graph shows the atmospheric concentration of CO2 over the past 400 thousand years. During that time CO2 never exceeded 300 ppm--and as I just mentioned, today it is at 380 ppm. Not only is CO2 rising in mass, the rate of increase is speeding up.
Recent data from a deep ice core drilled out of the Antarctic permafrost reveal a shocking rate of change in carbon dioxide concentrations. In the past, it had taken 1,000 years for carbon dioxide to rise by 30ppm during natural warming periods. According to the new measurements, the same level of increase has occurred in just the last 17 years.Isotopic tests confirmed that the recent carbon dioxide had come from fossil fuel sources and must be due to human activity.
My forensics training tells me that our industrial age has something to do with the unprecedented rise. The problem with a growing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere--is that CO2 is very effective at trapping the sun’s energy close to the earth’s surface which then results in more heat.
This graph shows the atmospheric concentration of CO2 over the past 400 thousand years. During that time CO2 never exceeded 300 ppm--and as I just mentioned, today it is at 380 ppm. Not only is CO2 rising in mass, the rate of increase is speeding up.
Recent data from a deep ice core drilled out of the Antarctic permafrost reveal a shocking rate of change in carbon dioxide concentrations. In the past, it had taken 1,000 years for carbon dioxide to rise by 30ppm during natural warming periods. According to the new measurements, the same level of increase has occurred in just the last 17 years.Isotopic tests confirmed that the recent carbon dioxide had come from fossil fuel sources and must be due to human activity.
My forensics training tells me that our industrial age has something to do with the unprecedented rise. The problem with a growing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere--is that CO2 is very effective at trapping the sun’s energy close to the earth’s surface which then results in more heat.
This color-coded map shows how surface temperatures changed on average from 2001 to 2005. 2005 was the warmest ranked year on record. Dark red indicates the greatest warming and purple indicates the greatest cooling. The numbers refer to temperature anomalies as measured by degrees Celsius.
In the past, conventional science told us that changes in the climate, such as the coming and going of Ice Ages took thousands of years. So global warming was seen as a gradual process that would not pose immediate threats to society. As research advanced, the comparison in ice cores convincingly showed that the climate could change more rapidly than almost any scientist had imagined.
In the 1950’s scientists believed it would take tens of thousands of years for the climate shift. Today, after the analysis of Greenland ice cores in 1993, most experts accept that rapid climate change--huge and global change--could come suddenly at any time.
If it’s been difficult for scientists to understand how the climate system works, it’s been even more difficult for the public to wrap their minds around it. We were educated to believe that glaciers inch along at a slow rate and we’ve never known anything other than the mostly friendly climate we’ve been living in for the past several thousand years. It’s a paradigm shift in thinking, much like accepting the fact that the earth was actually round.
Scientists searched for the trigger that could flip a sudden climate shift. One thing that had not been previously understood was how a warming atmosphere causes potent feedback loops to kick-in. And then the feedback loops cause temperatures to rise all the faster.
In the 1950’s scientists believed it would take tens of thousands of years for the climate shift. Today, after the analysis of Greenland ice cores in 1993, most experts accept that rapid climate change--huge and global change--could come suddenly at any time.
If it’s been difficult for scientists to understand how the climate system works, it’s been even more difficult for the public to wrap their minds around it. We were educated to believe that glaciers inch along at a slow rate and we’ve never known anything other than the mostly friendly climate we’ve been living in for the past several thousand years. It’s a paradigm shift in thinking, much like accepting the fact that the earth was actually round.
Scientists searched for the trigger that could flip a sudden climate shift. One thing that had not been previously understood was how a warming atmosphere causes potent feedback loops to kick-in. And then the feedback loops cause temperatures to rise all the faster.
We see the result of a warming atmosphere and also the creation of a feedback loop in the Arctic. Sea ice in the Arctic has failed to re-form for the second consecutive winter. The red line in the picture on the right shows where the white, snow-covered ice had been in 1979 when the previous picture had been taken. Scientists are forecasting the sea ice will be completely gone by 2050.
While the melting ice is causing problems for the indigenous cultures and wildlife, it also contributes to an acceleration of global warming by creating a feedback loop.
Because ice and snow both strongly reflect the sun’s rays, they help to keep the earth cool by reflecting that heat back into space. But as ice and glaciers melt, more land and water are exposed. Land and water, being darker surfaces, reflect less solar heat back out into space which makes temperatures grow hotter. As temperatures grow hotter, more ice melts--and a vicious feedback loop is created--making global warming happen all the faster. This, by the way, is known as the Albedo effect.
Left: Sea ice concentration, three-year average from 1979-1981. Image courtesy NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Right: Sea ice concentration, three-year average from 2003-2005. Image courtesy NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
While the melting ice is causing problems for the indigenous cultures and wildlife, it also contributes to an acceleration of global warming by creating a feedback loop.
Because ice and snow both strongly reflect the sun’s rays, they help to keep the earth cool by reflecting that heat back into space. But as ice and glaciers melt, more land and water are exposed. Land and water, being darker surfaces, reflect less solar heat back out into space which makes temperatures grow hotter. As temperatures grow hotter, more ice melts--and a vicious feedback loop is created--making global warming happen all the faster. This, by the way, is known as the Albedo effect.
Left: Sea ice concentration, three-year average from 1979-1981. Image courtesy NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Right: Sea ice concentration, three-year average from 2003-2005. Image courtesy NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
In the Southern hemisphere, Antarctica is melting. Winter air temperatures over Antarctica have risen by more than 2 degrees C in the last 30 years. If melting continues, and the West Antarctic ice sheet melts, sea levels are predicted to rise 20 feet. This loss of sun-reflecting ice in Antarctica also contributes to the feedback loop known as the Albedo effect.
In addition to the Arctic Sea melt and the melting of the Antarctic, we are witnessing land glaciers melting. This picture shows a stark contrast from 1941 to 2004.
Many people on the planet depend upon melting snow pack for drinking water. As an example, 500 million people in and around the Himalayas depend on glacier melt for water--and as we can see, that supply is diminishing. Again, the loss of ice and snow which reflected the sun is replaced by the heat absorbing dark surfaces of water and earth.
Many people on the planet depend upon melting snow pack for drinking water. As an example, 500 million people in and around the Himalayas depend on glacier melt for water--and as we can see, that supply is diminishing. Again, the loss of ice and snow which reflected the sun is replaced by the heat absorbing dark surfaces of water and earth.
These buildings were constructed upon Alaskan permafrost. The melting permafrost is impacting the structures built on top of it-- such as, buildings, roads, power poles, and oil pipelines.
In addition, the frozen Alaskan tundra is thawing. And on the other side of the world, vast expanses of western Siberia are undergoing an unprecedented thaw. As the tundra warms, it leaks CO2 and methane. The release of huge amounts of those greenhouse gases into the atmosphere creates even higher temperatures, causing another feedback loop which increases the speed and intensity of global warming.
In addition, the frozen Alaskan tundra is thawing. And on the other side of the world, vast expanses of western Siberia are undergoing an unprecedented thaw. As the tundra warms, it leaks CO2 and methane. The release of huge amounts of those greenhouse gases into the atmosphere creates even higher temperatures, causing another feedback loop which increases the speed and intensity of global warming.
Here, we see the Greenland Ice Sheet which is breaking apart and melting. Since 1996, there has been an acceleration of ice sheet--or glacier--fracturing during the summer melt season, indicating the ice sheet may be responding more quickly to the warming climate than previously anticipated.
Sea levels are predicted to rise 20 feet if the Greenland ice sheet melts. That’s in addition to the 20 foot rise predicted with a West Antarctic ice sheet meltdown.
Sea levels are predicted to rise 20 feet if the Greenland ice sheet melts. That’s in addition to the 20 foot rise predicted with a West Antarctic ice sheet meltdown.
This is a satellite image showing ice loss in a span of ten years from 1992 to 2002. The red was added to indicate the ice that is now gone. We can see how much ice has melted and broken apart in only a decade.
We can understand how the loss of snow and ice accelerates even more warming, but what is the hair trigger that would cause abrupt climate change?
We can understand how the loss of snow and ice accelerates even more warming, but what is the hair trigger that would cause abrupt climate change?
The most influential idea for what might bring rapid change was presented by this man, Wallace Broecker. He saw signs of rapid shifts between two alternate climate states as he researched his doctoral thesis in the 1950s. From the 1960s through the 1980s, Broecker’s research described one mechanism that would cause an abrupt shift in climate--a shut down of the entire circulation of the world's oceans.
In the words of Dr. Wally Broecker, "the climate system is an angry beast, and we are poking it."
In the words of Dr. Wally Broecker, "the climate system is an angry beast, and we are poking it."
Prior to the 1990s, global warming was considered to mainly be an atmospheric problem, but as the interrelationship between oceans and atmosphere are better understood, new evidence supports Broecker’s theories. Scientists now have a better understanding about the relationship between the melting Greenland ice sheet, the reduced salinity of the North Atlantic sea water and the ocean’s currents.
This is a representation of the great ocean conveyor belt system, known as the thermohaline circulation.
Nowadays, warm tropical water as shown by the orange line, flows northward near the surface of the Atlantic. A large quantity of colder water, heavy with salt, sinks near Iceland and returns southward in deeper currents as shown by the blue lines. These ocean currents--and we are most familiar with the one called the Gulf Stream--help to moderate air temperatures around the globe.
Dr. Broecker suggested that a change in temperature or salinity might shut down the circulation and bring severe climate change..
This is a representation of the great ocean conveyor belt system, known as the thermohaline circulation.
Nowadays, warm tropical water as shown by the orange line, flows northward near the surface of the Atlantic. A large quantity of colder water, heavy with salt, sinks near Iceland and returns southward in deeper currents as shown by the blue lines. These ocean currents--and we are most familiar with the one called the Gulf Stream--help to moderate air temperatures around the globe.
Dr. Broecker suggested that a change in temperature or salinity might shut down the circulation and bring severe climate change..
Today, scientists are observing how the infusion of cold, fresh water from melting Greenland ice is upsetting the flow of the Gulf Stream. Studies from the last 30 years indicate that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. More scientists affirm that the sudden shut down of the Gulf Stream could be the trigger that causes abrupt climate change and a sudden cooling of temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.
The north Atlantic conveyor carries warm water to northern latitudes where it sinks, returning at depth in the ocean.
The monitoring devices provide a detailed picture of ocean changes
Ice cores have revealed that global climate--long thought to change only very gradually--can shift with frightening speed, in some cases in a matter of years. As this graph (lower right) shows, one such jump occurred about 12,000 years ago, as the last glacial period (the Pleistocene) was giving way to our current warm "interglacial" period (the Holocene). Suddenly, possibly in less than five years, average temperatures, which were slightly cooler than today's, plunged by about 27°F, returning the world to near-glacial conditions. The Younger Dryas, as this freak period is known, lasted about 1,300 years before it returned--just as abruptly--to the temperatures typical of the period immediately preceding it.
In absolute terms, the pre-Younger Dryas CO2 concentration was something on the order of 300 to 320 ppm, the concentration during the Younger Dryas interval approximately 235 ppm, and the concentration immediately afterwards somewhere in the range of 285 to 300 ppm.
Bottom Left-- This is the total extent that lake Agassiz reached in its during its lifespan.
Top Right -- The outline of Lake Agassiz just before the catastrophic flood. At that time its outlet was to the south into the Mississippi drainage. (Right) The outline after the opening of the eastward outlet. A volume of 9500 cubic kilometers of water was suddenly released to the northern Atlantic through the St. Lawrence Valley (Leverington et al. 2000).
In absolute terms, the pre-Younger Dryas CO2 concentration was something on the order of 300 to 320 ppm, the concentration during the Younger Dryas interval approximately 235 ppm, and the concentration immediately afterwards somewhere in the range of 285 to 300 ppm.
Bottom Left-- This is the total extent that lake Agassiz reached in its during its lifespan.
Top Right -- The outline of Lake Agassiz just before the catastrophic flood. At that time its outlet was to the south into the Mississippi drainage. (Right) The outline after the opening of the eastward outlet. A volume of 9500 cubic kilometers of water was suddenly released to the northern Atlantic through the St. Lawrence Valley (Leverington et al. 2000).
Abrupt climate change has not totally been ignored by the US government. In 2003, the Pentagon released an abrupt climate change scenario which summarized that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century and it will have a profound impact upon human life.
The report recognizes the interrelationship between ocean currents and the atmosphere. Changes in ocean currents influence changes in the atmospheric jet stream which separates cold, polar air from hot tropical air.
Lately, the jet stream has been creeping toward the poles, making deserts expand further north and south.
The Pentagon report addresses these consequences.
Lately, the jet stream has been creeping toward the poles, making deserts expand further north and south.
The Pentagon report addresses these consequences.
As the report states: “Regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production could be severely altered, resulting in a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.”
Global warming will lead to sharply reduced soil moisture and -- with its floods and droughts -- will create conditions that fuel the spread of epidemics. Mosquitoes, ticks, mice and other carriers are surviving warmer winters and expanding their range, bringing health threats with them.
Abrupt climate change could lead to harsher prolonged winter weather in regions that now contribute to food production.
Interruption to the food supply as well as outbreaks of contagious disease are potential national security risks. These are not risks today, but if the trends continue, and without adequate preparation, the scope and intensity will increase with a warmer environment.
The Pentagon report concludes that fundamental challenges to national security will be posed by food shortages due to decreases in agricultural production. Also, the decreased availability and quality of fresh water because of flooding and droughts will escalate the degree of global conflict. This was published in the Pentagon report in 2003.
Global warming will lead to sharply reduced soil moisture and -- with its floods and droughts -- will create conditions that fuel the spread of epidemics. Mosquitoes, ticks, mice and other carriers are surviving warmer winters and expanding their range, bringing health threats with them.
Abrupt climate change could lead to harsher prolonged winter weather in regions that now contribute to food production.
Interruption to the food supply as well as outbreaks of contagious disease are potential national security risks. These are not risks today, but if the trends continue, and without adequate preparation, the scope and intensity will increase with a warmer environment.
The Pentagon report concludes that fundamental challenges to national security will be posed by food shortages due to decreases in agricultural production. Also, the decreased availability and quality of fresh water because of flooding and droughts will escalate the degree of global conflict. This was published in the Pentagon report in 2003.
The Pentagon report acknowledges the feedback loops created by a continually warming atmosphere. Higher surface air temperatures cause drying in forests, threatening to turn rainforests into deserts. Today, we’re experiencing forests under attack by insects. Insect pests that were once kept in check by winter cold, are flourishing and seriously damaging our forests. As summers get longer and hotter, more of our forests are fiercely burning.
Burning and dying forests contribute to another feedback loop because as trees die, forests absorb less carbon dioxide, and as trees burn, they release CO2 back into the atmosphere--resulting in higher atmospheric temperatures which again, leads to further warming.
Burning and dying forests contribute to another feedback loop because as trees die, forests absorb less carbon dioxide, and as trees burn, they release CO2 back into the atmosphere--resulting in higher atmospheric temperatures which again, leads to further warming.
As a result of a warming atmosphere, the oceans are also warming. And we’re already seeing an impact on ocean life. The coral reefs are in trouble and they’re like the rain forests of the ocean, supporting a vast variety of sea life. Approximately 70% of all life on this planet lives in the ocean.
Another reason Oceans are in trouble is because they are getting more acidic as a result of absorbing an excess amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. A combination of heat and acidity are having a negative impact on calcium based sea organisms such as plankton which is the bottom of the food chain--a source of food for much sea life, including whales. A significant loss of world food supply could be disrupted as oceans experience further warming. As fish migrate to new locations, the Pentagon scenario stated that there will be increasing tensions over fishing rights. A consequence of warming oceans is stronger storms. Recent studies have shown that warm ocean temperatures contribute to increased intensity of hurricanes.
It’s beyond the scope of this workshop to discuss ocean methane and how it contributes to another feedback loop of global warming, but we’ve had a broad look at the complicated science of global warming. As we have seen, it will not be a gradual and linear warming. The weather events will be extreme, chaotic, and unpredictable with far-reaching consequences that threaten our national security.
Another reason Oceans are in trouble is because they are getting more acidic as a result of absorbing an excess amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. A combination of heat and acidity are having a negative impact on calcium based sea organisms such as plankton which is the bottom of the food chain--a source of food for much sea life, including whales. A significant loss of world food supply could be disrupted as oceans experience further warming. As fish migrate to new locations, the Pentagon scenario stated that there will be increasing tensions over fishing rights. A consequence of warming oceans is stronger storms. Recent studies have shown that warm ocean temperatures contribute to increased intensity of hurricanes.
It’s beyond the scope of this workshop to discuss ocean methane and how it contributes to another feedback loop of global warming, but we’ve had a broad look at the complicated science of global warming. As we have seen, it will not be a gradual and linear warming. The weather events will be extreme, chaotic, and unpredictable with far-reaching consequences that threaten our national security.
When the climate warms, there is a drop in the abundance of the ocean's phytoplankton, the tiny plants that feed krill, fish and whales, according to scientists who say new research offers the first clues to the future of marine life under global warming.Ocean temperatures have generally risen over the last 50 years as the atmosphere warms. And now nine years of NASA satellite data published today in the journal Nature show that the growth rate and abundance of phytoplankton around the world decreases in warm ocean years and increases in cooler ocean years.The findings are crucial because they show a consequence of the changing global climate at the most fundamental level. Scientists estimate that phytoplankton is responsible for about half of Earth's photosynthesis, a process that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and converts it into organic carbon and oxygen that feeds nearly every ocean ecosystem.Fewer phytoplankton consume less carbon dioxide, aggravating a cycle that can lead to even more warming.Over the past decades, California scientists have linked declining plankton numbers to El Niños and other warm-water years in the Pacific Ocean, which set off a domino effect of fewer krill and young fish and eventually failed reproduction of seabirds and even deaths of seals and sea lions.
Oceans are absorbing rising levels of carbon dioxide and becoming more acidic. The change could be devastating for organisms that build their skeletons from carbonate ions. These include (from top) pteropods, foraminifera, coccolithophores and corals.
You can’t be on the planet today without noticing the extreme weather patterns. From increased storms and flash floods to more forest fires and golfball sized hail, extreme appears to have become the norm.
Extreme weather events are making many people believe that something ain’t right. The Pentagon report addressed the increased intensity and occurrences of storms--especially in certain regions around the world. Recovery and clean-up efforts following such storms would be a great drain on a nation’s resources.
Extreme weather events are making many people believe that something ain’t right. The Pentagon report addressed the increased intensity and occurrences of storms--especially in certain regions around the world. Recovery and clean-up efforts following such storms would be a great drain on a nation’s resources.
Because, as we’ve seen, extreme weather events are very costly.
According to the Pentagon report, a shortage of food, water, and habitable land, will cause a tremendous surge of environmental refugees. Global warming - more than war or political upheaval - will displace millions of people.
How will nations secure their borders and control local struggles for resources?
How will nations secure their borders and control local struggles for resources?
This man, John Reid, was recently in the news. As the British Defense Secretary--a position similar to the one Donald Rumsfeld now holds, Mr. Reid made the news because of a speech he made in February 2006. In that speech he listed climate change as one of the major threats facing the world in future decades.
To quote Mr. Reid:
“Impacts such as flooding, melting permafrost and desertification could lead to loss of agricultural land, poisoning of water supplies and destruction of economic infrastructure. Such changes make the emergence of violent conflict more rather than less likely.”
The British military is being put on standby to tackle threat of wars over water.
Policy makers in other countries are not burying their head in the sand about global warming and abrupt climate change.
When will the U.S. take a stand and what have we learned so far?
To quote Mr. Reid:
“Impacts such as flooding, melting permafrost and desertification could lead to loss of agricultural land, poisoning of water supplies and destruction of economic infrastructure. Such changes make the emergence of violent conflict more rather than less likely.”
The British military is being put on standby to tackle threat of wars over water.
Policy makers in other countries are not burying their head in the sand about global warming and abrupt climate change.
When will the U.S. take a stand and what have we learned so far?
Looking at the effects of one storm--Katrina-- let’s examine national security risks.
And what will be the impacts of more Katrinas, as we are predicted to experience.
Are we ready for more extreme weather events?
And what will be the impacts of more Katrinas, as we are predicted to experience.
Are we ready for more extreme weather events?
Remember when I mentioned that more than war or political upheaval, global warming will create environmental refugees?
During Hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year, 2 million people were displaced from the Gulf Coast.
During Hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year, 2 million people were displaced from the Gulf Coast.
We can imagine the time and money it will take to rebuild all of this. All of this damage was caused by Katrina.
One immediate consequence of a severely damaged infrastructure is that rescue efforts get bogged down.
In a progressively warming world, more of this severe type of damage will be seen, putting a deep financial strain on the local and national economies.
One immediate consequence of a severely damaged infrastructure is that rescue efforts get bogged down.
In a progressively warming world, more of this severe type of damage will be seen, putting a deep financial strain on the local and national economies.
On the left is an oil derrick upside down on the beach. Katrina interrupted the country's fuel supplies, spurring a frenzied spike in gasoline, natural gas and heating oil prices.
The resulting higher costs of fuel puts an additional strain on the national economy.
The resulting higher costs of fuel puts an additional strain on the national economy.
Hurricane Katrina triggered 575 petroleum and hazardous chemical spills.
Today, we still have no idea about the extent of damage--short term or long term. We don’t know how much money it will cost to clean it up and we don’t know how long it will take--or even if it can be cleaned up at all.
Today, we still have no idea about the extent of damage--short term or long term. We don’t know how much money it will cost to clean it up and we don’t know how long it will take--or even if it can be cleaned up at all.
As waters rose, the petroleum and hazardous chemical spills spread further inland.
When will displaced residents be able to return to this neighborhood--and others like it?
Again, the cost of cleanup for something like this is astronomical, putting an additional burden on the national economy. Plus, it paralyzes “life as we knew it” for local residents and municipalities. Migration to other cities causes new problems for those cities as their resources become strained trying to provide for the environmental refugees.
When will displaced residents be able to return to this neighborhood--and others like it?
Again, the cost of cleanup for something like this is astronomical, putting an additional burden on the national economy. Plus, it paralyzes “life as we knew it” for local residents and municipalities. Migration to other cities causes new problems for those cities as their resources become strained trying to provide for the environmental refugees.
Many Katrina survivors were exposed to prolonged exposure to the petrochemical tainted flood waters. What will be the long term health effects? And as British Secretary of Defense brought out, has the water supply been poisoned?
If water becomes contaminated with toxic chemicals or damaged sewage systems, we have a population in urgent crisis.
How do you communicate that you’re in crisis if the communication systems aren’t working? Many telephones, including most cell phones, were out of service due to line breaks or power failures. No internet, no newspapers, no way to know what’s happening.
A bright spot in Katrina’s aftermath is that amateur radio operators were heroes in helping to provide tactical and emergency communications.
A bright spot in Katrina’s aftermath is that amateur radio operators were heroes in helping to provide tactical and emergency communications.
Katrina showed us that government failed in its obligation to protect the people.
Government failed to rescue and provide security, failed to provide food and water, failed to provide health care, failed to provide energy--failed on every level.
With a warming world upon us, and more storms to come, what is government doing to prepare for rising sea levels, expanding deserts, and a growing population?
Homeland Security’s own analysis stated: “shortcomings in emergency planning, including antiquated and uncoordinated response guidelines, are cause "for significant national concern.”
Government failed to rescue and provide security, failed to provide food and water, failed to provide health care, failed to provide energy--failed on every level.
With a warming world upon us, and more storms to come, what is government doing to prepare for rising sea levels, expanding deserts, and a growing population?
Homeland Security’s own analysis stated: “shortcomings in emergency planning, including antiquated and uncoordinated response guidelines, are cause "for significant national concern.”
The Senate report on Hurricane Katrina stated: “FEMA is so flawed it should be abolished and replaced with a bulked-up national disaster agency.”
Poor planning and confusion about the military's role in a disaster contributed to problems. While the British Defense Secretary has put their armed forces on standby for the effects of global warming, what is our military doing?
And as a reminder, the powerful winds and storm surge of Katrina was not the only weather related event we have recently seen. The floods of the Northeast made one witness say-- “The rains came with intensity and without letup. Then came the floods - quickly and without mercy.”
Today, we have record heat and drought occurring in the west and midwest which are causing power blackouts, deaths of hundreds of people and thousands of livestock. We have droughts and forest fires. The signs that the climate is already changing--and rapidly--are impossible to ignore.
Today, we have record heat and drought occurring in the west and midwest which are causing power blackouts, deaths of hundreds of people and thousands of livestock. We have droughts and forest fires. The signs that the climate is already changing--and rapidly--are impossible to ignore.
Climate change has been made the world's biggest priority, with the publication of a stark report showing that the planet faces catastrophe unless urgent measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Future generations may come to regard the apocalyptic report by Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist at the World Bank, as the turning point in combating global warming, or as the missed opportunity.
To summarize what we can expect in the future--because we now know it has happened on the planet before but for different reasons--the entire planet will experience a continued warming due to the build up of greenhouse gases. Snow and ice will continue to melt, raising sea levels. Oceans will continue to warm, feeding more powerful hurricanes. Deserts will continue expanding threatening food supplies and resulting in famine. At some point the Gulf Stream would shut down and that’s when things would really start getting wild. That is the trigger that would cause abrupt climate change in the Northern hemisphere. The Southern hemisphere would continue to warm, but the Northern hemisphere could switch to Ice Age conditions very rapidly. This scenario of what we can expect in the future is taken directly from the Pentagon report.
I hope you leave this workshop with an understanding that:
• global warming is here
-and it causes feedback loops which speed up and amplify the effects of climate change -Abrupt climate change can cause cataclysmic events that could devastate water, food and energy supplies - which could disrupt society as we know it - I hope I haven’t filled you with fear because there’s already too much fear around the planet today. Rather than despair, we need to take action.
One way to start making changes is to understand the truth of what is happening. We’ve been shielded from the truth--just as the theories of Copernicus were labeled as heresy when he announced that the earth revolved around the sun. Eventually, the truth of his theory could not be denied.
Today, requires prompt action so human creativity and ingenuity can get at it. We can’t find solutions if we don’t understand the problem, so to further your understanding, I recommend the following books.
I hope you leave this workshop with an understanding that:
• global warming is here
-and it causes feedback loops which speed up and amplify the effects of climate change -Abrupt climate change can cause cataclysmic events that could devastate water, food and energy supplies - which could disrupt society as we know it - I hope I haven’t filled you with fear because there’s already too much fear around the planet today. Rather than despair, we need to take action.
One way to start making changes is to understand the truth of what is happening. We’ve been shielded from the truth--just as the theories of Copernicus were labeled as heresy when he announced that the earth revolved around the sun. Eventually, the truth of his theory could not be denied.
Today, requires prompt action so human creativity and ingenuity can get at it. We can’t find solutions if we don’t understand the problem, so to further your understanding, I recommend the following books.
To understand how global warming and dwindling natural resources will increase the likelihood of violent conflict over land, water and energy, I highly recommend Michael Klare’s book, Resource Wars.
The book below Klare’s book is entitled, Floods, Famines and Emperors by Brian Fagan. It gives plenty of examples of how cultures have adapted to stressful weather and the ways in which climatic alterations have changed the course of history.
On the upper right is Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse. Contrary to common beliefs, societal collapses of the past have been caused by sudden climate change, not only by social, political and economic factors.
And finally, the world of hope. David Korten writes about The Great Turning and the shift of paradigms we are now experiencing. How can we assist in making the transition from a world of empire to a world of earth community? I know that I’m going to attend his workshop at 5:30 today because first and foremost, I believe we need a change in consciousness.
The book below Klare’s book is entitled, Floods, Famines and Emperors by Brian Fagan. It gives plenty of examples of how cultures have adapted to stressful weather and the ways in which climatic alterations have changed the course of history.
On the upper right is Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse. Contrary to common beliefs, societal collapses of the past have been caused by sudden climate change, not only by social, political and economic factors.
And finally, the world of hope. David Korten writes about The Great Turning and the shift of paradigms we are now experiencing. How can we assist in making the transition from a world of empire to a world of earth community? I know that I’m going to attend his workshop at 5:30 today because first and foremost, I believe we need a change in consciousness.
Back in Vietnam, sometimes it seemed overwhelming to climb back into the helicopter knowing we were headed for a violent firefight. The odds were high that we would take some hits-- and possibly turn into a catastrophic fireball. Dustoff missions were dangerous--we ended up losing a third of our crew members during the Vietnam War. Yet, we flew into those hot firefights, fate unknown, because lives were at stake. There is no greater calling than contributing to the well-being of others and supporting and sustaining life.
Today, we embark on a similar cause. We all have to make an effort to turn things around. Even small efforts in our daily lives, add up.
I encourage you to try and understand the issue and educate yourself. The internet provides a wealth of information. When you know the truth of what is going on, your heart and mind will tell you what to do. Share your knowledge with friends and family. Together, we will make steps toward a world of hope. We the people must insist that our government--starting at the local level--addresses the issue of global warming.
In talking about global warming, Carl Sagan said: "I am moderately hopeful that we can get out of this mess -- but only by changes in behavior. We have been irresponsible in technology. We've been greedy for short term goals and profits. Now, we must change." - Quoted in the Phoenix Gazette, September 26, 1989
I was only given a 1 in 3 chance of survival, yet here I am. There is no telling what we can do if we put our minds and hearts to it.
Today, we embark on a similar cause. We all have to make an effort to turn things around. Even small efforts in our daily lives, add up.
I encourage you to try and understand the issue and educate yourself. The internet provides a wealth of information. When you know the truth of what is going on, your heart and mind will tell you what to do. Share your knowledge with friends and family. Together, we will make steps toward a world of hope. We the people must insist that our government--starting at the local level--addresses the issue of global warming.
In talking about global warming, Carl Sagan said: "I am moderately hopeful that we can get out of this mess -- but only by changes in behavior. We have been irresponsible in technology. We've been greedy for short term goals and profits. Now, we must change." - Quoted in the Phoenix Gazette, September 26, 1989
I was only given a 1 in 3 chance of survival, yet here I am. There is no telling what we can do if we put our minds and hearts to it.
Please direct comments to: JandLSeebeth@gmail.com